Risk = threat + vulnerability (Security)

[Ref AVIA4020 Handout Lesson 2, Aviation Security Management]

Risk has two significance – 1) likelihood (estimated probability or frequency) and 2) predicted severity (consequence); In aviation security topic, we say risk is the result of two elements – 1) threat and 2) vulnerability

Risk = threat + vulnerability

  • Threat is an exploitable vulnerability;
  • Vulnerability is a weakness in the system and which can be decreased by imposing measures

In aviation security topic, threats composed of 2 factors :

  1. the intent or desire to attack the target
  2. the capability to do so

IMPORTANT: The threat in security topic is a bit different from the one in TEM framework!

In TEM framework:

Threats – events or errors that –

  • occur outside the influence of the flight crew (i.e., not caused by the crew);
  • increase the operational complexity of a flight; and
  • require crew attention and management if safety margins are to be maintained.

“Pilots in Command: Your Best Trip, Every Trip” – by Kristofer Pierson


 

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