[Ref AVIA4020 Handout Lesson 2, Aviation Security Management]
Risk has two significance – 1) likelihood (estimated probability or frequency) and 2) predicted severity (consequence); In aviation security topic, we say risk is the result of two elements – 1) threat and 2) vulnerability
Risk = threat + vulnerability
- Threat is an exploitable vulnerability;
- Vulnerability is a weakness in the system and which can be decreased by imposing measures
In aviation security topic, threats composed of 2 factors :
- the intent or desire to attack the target
- the capability to do so
IMPORTANT: The threat in security topic is a bit different from the one in TEM framework!
In TEM framework:
Threats – events or errors that –
- occur outside the influence of the flight crew (i.e., not caused by the crew);
- increase the operational complexity of a flight; and
- require crew attention and management if safety margins are to be maintained.